Most of us have heard the saying that timing is everything in life. From getting that choice job to picking the best week for vacation timing has a lot to do with it all. So this evening after another fine summer day, though more humid, I am focused on the timing of a cold front for tomorrow.
So far this summer has been one of frequent breaks in the heat and humidity and plenty of showers to accompany those breaks. This time of year, most cold fronts, which end a period of heat and humidity, even a day or two of it, are accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. The severity of those storms is dependent on a number of factors including how warm and humid the air is to begin and how cool and dry it will be after the front passes.
Another major factor in thunderstorm development is the time of day a front approaches. If a front nears the area during the peak heat of the afternoon and early evening the chances of strong to severe storms is much higher than it would be if the front passes at 5AM during the coolest part of the day.
If you like big storms, tomorrow brings the opportunity for some strong storms because the front will be getting closer as the temperatures near the 90F degree mark inland and even into the 80s along parts of the coast just inland from the water after 2PM. The actual front won’t move through until late at night, but there will be enough lift before the front so storms should form.
Tomorrow, the atmosphere will be such that strong winds, heavy downpours and even possible hail could accompany a storm. I’m only expecting a tenth to a quarter inch of rain, but if you see one of the storms that number could be significantly higher. The highest risk of storms will be west of the Main with the lowest risk of severe weather east of Rockland.
If you have outdoor plans Wednesday you it’s going to be a great beach day through 3PM or so. The winds will have a slightly more westerly component tomorrow, areas along the coast south of Portland could reach the 80s, but places like Cape Elizabeth, Harpswell, Rockland, and Wiscasset will stay in the 70s.
This image shows the position of the showers around 2PM. Notice most of them are still west of the coastal plain.
Once the front passes the showers will end and I believe slow clearing will move in for Thursday. The first half of the day may still see clouds over southern areas, but a trend for more sunshine will be evident throughout the day.
Sunday we will transition into a more unsettled pattern. While next week isn’t going to be a washout, it’s not going to be the accompanied by the mostly dry and sunny weather of the current 7 day stretch. It’s also not going to be a very warm next week.
Finally, speaking of timing, check out the Doppler radar image from this past weekend over the Midwest. This loop is not of a few showers, but of a massive mayfly hatch. Click on the image to make it loop.
You can see the flies hatching and then moving north. It’s not what Doppler radar is intended for, but does show how sensitive the radar is. Kinda cool! Please follow me on Twitter @growingwisdom for more updates.